[1]徐朝阳,任叶飞,温瑞智,等.概率地震海啸危险性分析中地震样本容量的确定——考虑震级分布完备性[J].地震工程与工程振动,2018,(04):117-123.[doi:10.13197/j.eeev.2018.04.117.xuzy.018]
 XU Zhaoyang,REN Yefei,WEN Ruizhi,et al.Earthquake sample capacity in probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis: considering the completeness of magnitude distribution[J].EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING AND ENGINEERING DYNAMICS,2018,(04):117-123.[doi:10.13197/j.eeev.2018.04.117.xuzy.018]
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概率地震海啸危险性分析中地震样本容量的确定——考虑震级分布完备性
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《地震工程与工程振动》[ISSN:/CN:]

卷:
期数:
2018年04期
页码:
117-123
栏目:
论文
出版日期:
2018-10-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Earthquake sample capacity in probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis: considering the completeness of magnitude distribution
作者:
徐朝阳 任叶飞 温瑞智 刘也
中国地震局 工程力学研究所, 中国地震局地震工程与工程振动重点实验室, 黑龙江 哈尔滨 150080
Author(s):
XU Zhaoyang REN Yefei WEN Ruizhi LIU Ye
1. Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration, Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, Harbin 150080, China
关键词:
地震样本容量PTHA震级分布完备性敏感性分析
Keywords:
earthquake sample capacityPTHAmagnitude distributioncompletenesssensitivity analysis
分类号:
P315.9
DOI:
10.13197/j.eeev.2018.04.117.xuzy.018
摘要:
近年来随着世界各国对海啸防灾减灾的重视,国内外都开展了大量PTHA工作,然而其中有关地震样本容量的确定都较为随意,也没有相关研究给出合理的方法。本文考虑地震样本的震级分布完备性,采用蒙特卡洛随机采样技术,通过试算法确定PTHA工作中潜源的最佳地震样本容量。通过敏感性分析发现潜源的震级上下限之差ΔM对确定最佳地震样本容量影响显著。通过数据拟合建立了最佳地震样本容量与震级差ΔM的经验模型;最后,将模型应用于我国东南沿海的PTHA工作中,给出了各潜在海啸源的最佳地震样本容量建议值。
Abstract:
With much attention to tsunami mitigation worldwide in recent years, a large amount of PTHA work has been carried out both at home and abroad. However, the determination of the capacity of earthquake samples is relatively arbitrary, and there is no relevant study to develop an available method. In this paper, considering the completeness of magnitude distribution of earthquake samples, the Monte Carlo random sampling technique was used to determine optimum earthquake sample capacity of potential sources in PTHA work by trial algorithm. Through the sensitivity analysis, it has been observed that the difference between the upper and lower magnitudes (ΔM) of the potential source has significant influence on determining the optimum earthquake sample capacity. The empirical model of the earthquake sample capacity and ΔM was established by data fitting; finally, this model was applied to the PTHA work in the coastal areas of South China Sea, and the optimal seismic sample capacity for each potential tsunami source was recommended.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2018-03-04;改回日期:2018-05-09。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51278473);环保部公益性行业科研专项(201209040);东北亚地震海啸和火山合作研究计划项目(ZRH2014-11)
作者简介:徐朝阳(1991-),男,博士研究生,主要从事海啸防灾减灾研究.E-mail:xuzhaoyangiem@163.com
通讯作者:温瑞智(1968-),男,研究员,博士,主要从事强震地震学及海啸防灾减灾研究.E-mail:ruizhi@iem.ac.c
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01