[1]王勇胜,金星,韦永祥.新型地震预警方法研究及预警能力分析[J].地震工程与工程振动,2019,39(01):106-113.[doi:10.13197/j.eeev.2019.01.106.wangys.013]
 WANG Yongsheng,JIN Xing,WEI Yongxiang.Research on new earthquake early-warning method and analysis of earthquake early warning ability[J].EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING AND ENGINEERING DYNAMICS,2019,39(01):106-113.[doi:10.13197/j.eeev.2019.01.106.wangys.013]
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新型地震预警方法研究及预警能力分析
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《地震工程与工程振动》[ISSN:/CN:]

卷:
39
期数:
2019年01
页码:
106-113
栏目:
论文
出版日期:
2019-02-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on new earthquake early-warning method and analysis of earthquake early warning ability
作者:
王勇胜1 金星12 韦永祥2
1. 中国地震局 工程力学研究所, 中国地震局地震工程与工程振动重点实验室, 黑龙江 哈尔滨 150080;
2. 福建省地震局, 福建 福州 350003
Author(s):
WANG Yongsheng1 JIN Xing12 WEI Yongxiang2
1. Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration, China Earthquake Administration, Harbin 150080, China;
2. Fujian Earthquake Administration, Fuzhou 350003, China
关键词:
数据同化辐射传输理论网内地震网外地震复杂地震地震预警
Keywords:
data assimilationRadiative Transfer Theoryearthquake in the seismic station networkearthquake out of the seismic station networkearthquake early-warning
分类号:
P315.01
DOI:
10.13197/j.eeev.2019.01.106.wangys.013
摘要:
本文研究了一种不同于传统地震预警方法的新型预警方法。这种预警方法利用数据同化技术对实时波动场进行精确估计,然后再利用基于辐射传输理论的蒙特卡洛直接模拟法对波动能量的传播做数值模拟,并最终计算预警目标区烈度并做阈值判断发出预警警报。整个预警过程无需触发、无需定位、无需测定震级、无需利用衰减关系,较传统预警方法具有明显不同的技术手段,比较有效避免了传统地震预警方法中一系列基于经验统计规律的误差累积和单纯依靠初至P波信息在应对复杂地震时的局限性。本文选择了2011年3月11日日本Mw9.0地震和2016年2月6日台湾Mw6.7美浓地震作为预警模拟震例,分析并论证了本文预警方法在处理网外地震、网内地震以及复杂地震时的预警能力,最终得出本文预警方法在应对网内地震时具有良好的预警准确性和时效性,以及相对于传统预警方法在处理复杂地震时具有较大的优势。最后,总结并展望了本文研究工作的不足之处和有待继续研究的地方。
Abstract:
In this paper, we proposed a new earthquake early-warning method, which is different from the traditional method. About this new method, we applied data assimilation to estimate the precisely distribution of the present wavefield, then simulated the propagation of wave energy numerically by the direct-simulation Monte Carlo method based on Radiative Transfer Theory, calculated the intensity about the target area and sent the alert after judgment. There are no seismic phase collecting, no seismic location, no magnitude, no ground motion prediction equation in the new earthquake early-warning method. With this different technique, we avoid the accumulation of errors resulted by a series of techniques based on empirical statistical rules in traditional method effectively and get rid of limitation of relying P-wave purely when faced with a complex earthquake. We select two event the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake in Japan and the 2016 Mw6.7 Meinong earthquake in Taiwan for case analysis and to probe deeply into the capacity of this new method used into earthquake early-warning system. What’s more, shock occurred in or out of the seismic station network and complex earthquake as the scenes in the analysis. Then as a conclusion, we found the new method behaves well in earthquake early-warning when faced with the earthquakes occurred in the seismic station network and has a great advantage in dealing with complex earthquakes compared with? traditional? verification? method. At the end, we summarized and discussed the shortcoming of the research work and the further study.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2018-01-30;改回日期:2018-05-26。
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1504005,2017YFC1500802);地震科技星火计划攻关项目(XH16021)
作者简介:王勇胜(1992-),男,硕士研究生,主要从事地震预警方面研究.E-mail:416838814@qq.com
通讯作者:金星。E-mail:eew_2016@sina.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01