BO Jingshan,HUANG Jingyi,ZHANG Jianyi,et al.A prediction method of surface rupture in strong earthquakes based on logistic regression analysis[J].EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING AND ENGINEERING DYNAMICS,2019,39(04):001-7.[doi:10.13197/j.eeev.2019.04.1.bojs.001]





A prediction method of surface rupture in strong earthquakes based on logistic regression analysis
薄景山12 黄静宜1 张建毅1 王福昌1
1. 防灾科技学院, 河北 三河 065201;
2. 中国地震局 工程力学研究所, 中国地震局 地震工程与工程振动重点实验室, 黑龙江 哈尔滨 150080
BO Jingshan12 HUANG Jingyi1 ZHANG Jianyi1 WANG Fuchang1
1. Institute of Disaster Prevention, Sanhe 065201, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering Vibration, Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, Harbin 150080, China
strong earthquakessurface rupturelogistic regressionprediction method
Surface rupture in strong earthquakes usually causes serious damage to engineering structures. In engineering construction, it is necessary to evaluate the existence of seismogenic faults and the occurrence of surface ruptures inconstruction sites. The occurrence of earthquakes is random, so the surface rupture caused by strong earthquakes is also uncertain. Therefore, given its probability expression, it meets the current people’s understanding level of this problem and the requirement of risk selection in engineering construction. On the basis of summarizing the surface rupture and damage caused by strong earthquakes, this paper introduces the mathematical model of logistic regression, which is used to study multi-variable participation and predict the probability of occurrence of an event, into the prediction of surface rupture caused by strong earthquakes, meanwhile, the basic principle of logistic regression method is also introduced; the feasibility and suitability of this method for predicting the probability of surface rupture of strong earthquakes have been demonstrated; evaluation factors and classification methods were proposed; the specific data calculation method is given and the significance test is carried out; taking Wenchuan Earthquake as an example, the suitability of the model is tested and applied concretely. The work of this paper has important reference value for scientific researchers in this field.


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更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01